2024 Summer Construction Market Trends Skanska 2024 Summer Construction Market Trends Report

Construction Market Trends

Stay up to date on the dynamics of the construction industry with Skanska USA Building’s Construction Market Trends Report. Explore regional construction escalation insights and forecasts, supply chain lead times, material pricing and critical market indices through this interactive report.

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Summer 2024

Over the past six quarters, the pace of construction cost escalation has returned closer to pre-pandemic levels, following two years of double-digit increases. Top of mind for all of us in the industry is what lies ahead. In the second half of 2024, there are some recessionary concerns, which are being fed by weak jobs reports and forecasts for technology and manufacturing sectors. It appears increasingly likely the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in Q3. While this reduction may not be significant enough to change the course of many shovel-ready projects, other factors will shape inflation and investment in 2025. Chief among them: the U.S. presidential election and federal, state and local elections, which will certainly drive near term economic policy. Interest rate pressures, inflated construction costs and commercial office vacancies have led to construction cost indexes returning to 2 – 4 percent annual escalation rates. However, not all markets are feeling escalation levels evenly. There has been a surge in public infrastructure work and electrification/decarbonization projects. This work and the on-going data center and semi-conductor/hi-tech expansion have filled the void left by the decline in commercial office and other financed private investments; this shift is particularly straining mechanical and electrical trades in many regions. Despite recession concerns, we expect the present volume in the industry to keep upward pressure on construction costs through 2024 and into 2025.

What to expect if:

Consider alternative manufacturers

For prospective projects, evaluate your local market conditions to understand potential shifts that could yield improved budgets.

Understand the constraints of the local utility company

What lies ahead in 2025?

Continue to evaluate the major power equipment

With the volatility of the MEP trades, consider alternative procurement approaches such as design-build or design-assist, where possible, with qualified MEP contractors. In traditional procurement models, interview local and regional MEP trade subcontractors early to presell your project and develop a purchasing plan that reflects the input of these key trades.

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Steve Stouthamer

Executive Vice President, Project Planning

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Market Sentiment

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Consider alternative manufacturers or temporary solutions for power needs to abate lead time issues.

Consider alternative procurement approaches

Evaluate your local market conditions

There remains a significant need to grow the construction workforce. Some would argue that construction employment at 5.2 percent is essentially full employment while many industry experts argue that wage levels need to continue growing to attract the workforce. As craft labor agreements renew, we could see wages increase at a pace higher than normal.

Reductions in interest levels would likely increase spending and put sellers of goods and services in the driver's seat. Construction escalation could begin to climb, but not likely to the double-digit levels we saw post-pandemic. However, project costs would be impacted.

What to watch:

Construction Labor Rate Agreements

Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates at their September meeting. While many are predicting a rate reduction in September, the Fed may elect to sit tight despite recession concerns as inflation levels remain high.

Interest Rates

There remains a significant need to grow the construction workforce. Some would argue that construction unemployment at 3.9 percent is essentially full employment and that wage levels need to continue growing to attract the workforce. As craft labor agreements renew, we could see wages increase at a pace higher than normal.

Summer 2024 Construction Pricing Snapshot

Next: Local Forecasts Map

Materials and Commodities

Industry Indices

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Construction Cost Indices

Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of August 2024

Materials Index

Construction Cost Indices

Spending

Building Cost Index

Materials Index

U.S. Employment

Architecture

Unemployment

Click an index or material to view details

Building Cost Index

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics All data as of July 2024

Hover over the chart to see exact figures

U.S. unemployment has ticked upward compared to one year prior. The July 2024 unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent and the total number of unemployed persons is 7.2 million. The monthly gain in July dropped to 114,000, compared to the average gain of 215,000 per month over the past 12 months. Specifically in July, job gains occurred in healthcare, construction, transportation and warehousing. Construction unemployment remains unchanged from one year prior, at 3.9 percent for July.

U.S. Unemployment

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Dodge Data & Analytics Construction spending data for June 2024 and Dodge Momentum data is from June 2024

The Dodge Momentum Index increased 10.4 percent in June 2024 from May 2024, and is 7 percent higher than that of June 2023. “Data center planning continued to be the primary driver of commercial growth in June, alongside moderate growth in retail, hotels, and warehouse projects,” according to Dodge Construction Network. This reflects the steady increase in commercial building, now up 25 percent from year-ago levels, while institutional building is down 25 percent over the same period.

Construction Spending and Dodge Momentum Index

Source: Engineering News-Record All data as of August 2024

Hover over the chart to see exact figures

Skilled Labor Index and Common Labor Index

The ENR Skilled Labor Index, which generally trends at an annual increase level of 2 – 2.5 percent, was nearly flat for the 12 months ending July 1. The Common Labor Index, however, trended lower but closer to historical annual trends. Despite these index trends, we expect to see more significant wage growth to attract craft labor to the industry and meet the current shortfall.

Skilled Labor and Common Labor Indices

Source: AIA, All data as of June 2024

This Architecture Billings Index (ABI) demonstrates whether or not architectural firms are billing for or signing new design contracts. The construction industry feels the impact of this index with a 9-to-12-month lag time.

Unfortunately, conditions at architecture firms have continued to soften. The ABI is now at 46.4 for June 2024, the twelfth consecutive month at 50 or lower. Architecture firms’ backlogs are now the lowest of the last three years. Firms of all specializations (commercial/industrial, institutional and residential are experiencing less inquiries and design contracts. Only firms in the Northeast reported a slight increase in billings, which was the first time since January 2023.

June ABI Report

Architecture Billings Index

Fuels and Natural Gas

Structural Steel Inputs

Concrete and Cement

Drywall, Gypsum and Insulation

Asphalt

Lumber and Wood

Piping

Metals

Fuels and Natural Gas

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration All data as of July 2024

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index Drywall and Insulation data as of July 2024, Gypsum data as of July 2024

Drywall, Gypsum and Insulation

Source: Steel Benchmarker All data as of July 2024

Structural Steel Inputs

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index PG 58 data as of July 2024 WPU058102 data as of July 2024

Asphalt

Fuel prices have climbed alongside summer travel. That said, the cost of raw crude oil determines approximately half the cost for a gallon of fuel. OPEC, the global oil cartel, sets crude oil production quotas for each country and is constantly fluctuating these quotas which often artificially drive prices higher.

Asphalt index levels are stable despite peak summer demand. We expect to see increases in asphalt pricing as road/highway infrastructure project demands increase.

Structural steel pricing is down. Based on falling scrap prices and softening demand, the expectation going forward is that pricing will continue to soften.

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index Concrete Block and Precast Concrete data as of June 2024 4000 PSI data as of July 2024

Concrete and Cement

Concrete pricing continues to rise but at a slower pace than 2023. Quarter to quarter, 4000 PSI concrete pricing is up 3.9 percent.

PVC: PVC pipe prices are relatively stable due to low residential demand and a solid supply of resin. Copper: With strong demand for copper piping, prices continued to rise over the last quarter. Ductile Iron: Ductile Iron prices declined due to reduced commercial demand and a strong supply of raw steel and pipe.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index All data as of June 2024

Piping

Lumber pricing continues to bounce around at the bottom of the market. Housing starts have declined further, which will keep lumber pricing at its current, lower levels.

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index Plywood and 2x4 S4S data as of June 2024 Lumber and Plywoo4d data as of July 2024

Lumber and Wood

Pricing for aluminum, zinc and nickel retreated as supply stabilized and demand softened. Copper prices continued to retreat from an all-time high in May as inventory levels grew (in part due to production increases in China).

Source: Kitco All data as of July 2024

Metals

Scoring

-50: decrease in volume =50: neutral 50+: increase in volume

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The ENR Materials Index continues cooling and distancing itself from the significant year-over-year inflation experienced in 2021 and 2022. Like the BCI and CCI, the Materials Index doesn’t include mechanical and electrical equipment cost impacts, which have driven project costs higher than traditional measures of construction inflation. With the large volume of high-tech work and the expanding efforts in electrification towards decarbonization, such equipment costs will remain high.

Both of ENR’s core construction indices have remained below the 3 – 3.5 percent historical, annualized escalation trend for the past 12 months. The cautionary reminder is that regional locations are experiencing inflation differently based on work volume. MEP system costs, which are not incorporated in the ENR indexes, continue to escalate more rapidly than other building systems.

Scoring

-50: decrease in volume =50: neutral 50+: increase in volume

Drywall availability remains stable, however, pricing is back up (in the 5 – 7 percent range). Insulation prices are also on the rise due to increased demand, especially for mineral wool. Lead times for mineral wool insulation remain elevated and should be expected at five to eight months through 2024.

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Market Sentiment

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Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of August 2024

Labor

Use this slider to modify the timeframe of the data shown on the graph. Click on the graph for specific pricing data points.

Might Change

Forecasting Local 2024 Construction Costs

This map reflects local USA Building Project Planning Services team leaders’ opinions of market volume and capacity and is not based on published analytics or third-party forecasts.

Click the map pins to see forecast details for a specific city or region.

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

Seattle

Portland

Orlando

Tampa

New Jersey

New York

Boston

Phoenix

Philadelphia

Washington D.C.

North Carolina/ Virginia

Cincinnati

Atlanta

Nashville

Houston

Dallas

San Antonio

Los Angeles

San Francisco

Boston/New England

Boston's construction market is settling in to a new normal. Higher education, K-12, infrastructure, transportation, manufacturing and healthcare remain strong, taking advantage of a market that’s returned to a more predictable escalation rate. As property values have decreased sales, city officials are weighing options to avoid a decline in tax revenue while also stimulating new starts with funding for residential projects, which will help ease some housing needs. Additionally, government funding has spurred an increase in projects with a focus on energy efficiency and decreased consumption of fossil fuels. Financial concerns, along with election uncertainties, are continuing to slow new commercial development. In addition, the continued pressure on commercial property development across office, lab and residential projects is slowing new construction in those markets. Developers are delaying new starts and positioning themselves for the next cycle while some design firms remain busy getting projects shovel ready.

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Matt Impastato, Vice President of Preconstruction, Boston.

Differing Temperatures for Different Markets

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Next: Supply Chain

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Market is experiencing significant construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is less than 3% per annum

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is less than 3% per annum

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Back to map

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Atlanta, GA

With the market shift from corporate commercial, higher education and healthcare to mission critical, technology, and distribution/manufacturing/warehousing, labor markets remain stressed, particularly for skilled labor. Strategic scheduling of project initiation is critical for securing subcontractor involvement.

Growing High-tech and Mission Critical Sectors Strain Labor Market

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Dane Wooley, Preconstruction Director in Atlanta.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Cincinnati, OH

We have seen a temporary slow down for projects in the bidding phase, which has helped to stabilize pricing and increase competition. This will be temporary, however, due to the number of large projects that are in the planning phase across numberous market sectors. We expect Q1 and Q2 of 2025 to have significant bidding activity that will stretch the trade partner community and most likely decrease competition on projects. We anticipate that this will increase price escalation pressure on projects once again.

Construction Market Stays Busy, Yet Pricing Appears Stable

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Jeff Smoker, Vice President of Preconstruction in Cincinnati.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Dallas, TX

The North Texas area, one of the fastest-growing regions in the country, is witnessing significiant infrastructure development to support an expanding population. For example, there are ongoing expansions to all major highways, including I-635, I-35E, I-30, and North Dallas Tollway, and a notable project is underway: DART Silver Line, a $1.89B, 26-mile commuter rail that will connect to DFW Airport. The residential construction sector is experiencing robust demand, driven by the city's population growth, and we're seeing mixed-use developments increasing in popularity. Notable projects include The Union Dallas, a $370M, 800,000-SF two-tower development and Victor Park, a $150M apartment tower with 497 units. Other market sectors that are witnessing a construction surge include industrial and logistics, aviation, mission critical and healthcare. Despite this positive outlook, the North Texas construction industry faces several challenges: rising material costs, labor shortages, and regulatory complexities are significant concerns that could slow down project timelines and increase budgets.

North Texas Continues to Thrive

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Linh Le, Vice President of Preconstruction in Texas.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Washington, D.C.

There are significant differences in the various vertical sectors in the greater D.C. region. Higher education has several projects in planning, while K-12 has been affected by budget cuts across many counties. Commercial office planning has stalled due to lack of demand, while multifamily developers are planning projects that will be constructed in two to four years, contingent on interest rates, construction costs and demand. Some developers are selling properties at large discounts, anticipating a continued weak commercial development market. Healthcare is showing signs of growth with large projects in planning and construction. A combination of several large projects and ongoing construction of data centers has strained the availability of large mechanical and electrical trade contractors and the labor pools in these trades. These factors, along with rising commodities costs, are causing pricing in these trades to remain high with higher than normal escalation. Other trades, such as concrete, glass and drywall, have remained relatively flat over the past year due to reduced backlogs, which has led to lower margins despite labor and material price increases.

Mixed Markets and Strained Labor Pools

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Strawbridge, Preconstruction Director in Washington, D.C.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Houston, TX

As Houston transitions towards renewable energy sources, supported by Federal incentives and private investments, projects like solar farms, wind energy installations, and upgrades to existing oil and gas infrastructure are expected to dominate the construction landscape. The residential construction sector is witnessing strong demand, fueled by the city's growing population. New housing developments, particularly in suburban areas, are expanding to accommodate the influx of residents.

Houston's Energy Sector Continues Driving Construction Activity

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Linh Le, Vice President of Preconstruction in Texas.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Los Angeles, CA

The commercial office market remains slow, with leasing activity down year over year, vacancy rates remaining high, and institutional capital shifting from office to more stable asset classes. Currently we are seeing no signs that there will be significant recovery for this market sector in the near term. The local construction industry continues to be driven by significant expansion and renovation projects at LAX along with mass transit connections and extensions that connect into downtown LA (in readiness for the 2026 World Cup and the 2028 Olympics). Meanwhile, LAX's $30 billion capitol program is only nearing its halfway point.

LAX and Mass Transit Driving Construction

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Alan Dunbar, Senior Vice President, Preconstruction.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

Local minimum wage requirements that differ from State or Federal—such as Miami Dade County's (MDC) Responsible Wages & Benefits for Construction Contracts—may no longer be permitted under a new Florida law that was recently passed (HB 433). For many trades, these stipulated wages are higher than the market rate, driving up the cost of the work. Removing these requirements should lower labor costs and increase the number of bidders interested in publicly funded projects.

New Legislation May Impact Public Projects

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Nashville, TN

The construction industry in Nashville remains stable and the subcontractor community is staying active in filling backlogs, resulting in improved bid interest. The future of private development projects remains challenging due to a difficult financing environment. Despite these challenges, a limited number of well-positioned residential and hospitality projects are moving forward. Construction on the Titan's Football Stadium is underway and procurement of trade subcontractors is ongoing, which will result in increased utilization of local workforce through summer 2027. Prime parcels adjacent to the stadium will be redeveloped, sustaining workforce demand over the next three to four years. Additionally, the ongoing development of Nashville's East Bank and River North districts is poised to fuel construction demand for public and private sector projects.

Stability Expected for Nashville Through 2024

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Adam Hicks, Vice President of Preconstruction in Nashville.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

North Carolina/Virginia

The NC/VA market continues to be driven by a number of large projects. While work on major healthcare and corporate campus projects has slowed, others have emerged in sectors like transportation, with the start of the high speed rail line from Raleigh to Richmond. Most significant is ongoing work in the mission critical and advanced manufacturing sectors. These projects have had a disproportional impact on local and regional MEP trade contractors who are experiencing significant labor shortages, resulting in very selective bidding on new projects and increased margins. Adjacent regions also remain busy, limiting out of town firms from entering the market. Meanwhile, escalation on civil, structural and architectural trades is largely stabilized. All projects, no matter their requirements, should focus on engaging MEP partners early—to secure long lead equipment and ensure adequate labor capacity and market competition.

MEP Trades Continue to Drive Escalation

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Will Senner, Vice President of Preconstruction in North Carolina and Virginia.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

New Jersey

The Gateway Development Commission has received full funding, largely from the Federal government, to rehabilitate the North River Tunnel and build a new double-track tunnel between NJ and Manhattan. Of the $16B estimated total project cost, over $5B in contracts are expected to be awarded before the end of this year. Public projects continue to outpace the private sector as investors wait for interest rates to decline later this year. High interest rates have lowered lumber prices due to less demand for new housing. Steel prices are also down while copper pricing hit a record high in May. Although many material costs have decreased, construction wages are expected to increase 4 – 5 percent with total escalation for 2024 continuing to trend between 3 – 3.5 percent. Generally, lead times are down as much as 25 percent since last year.

Hudson Tunnel Project Finally Moving Forward

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Nick Culver, Vice President of Preconstruction in New Jersey.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

New York, NY

Healthcare organizations are looking to harness new technologies (like generative AI within their IT departments) and are prioritizing investing in modernized infrastructure. Presently, many major healthcare institutions' large projects are static with the exception of NYU Langone as they continue expanding their footprint in Long Island. The life sciences market has several major RFPs through NYCEDC and others for new construction. However, developer-driven life sciences projects continue to experience a slowdown due to heightened interest rates and challenges in securing tenants. The commercial office sector continues to see a slowdown marked by low tenant occupancy rates. The residential sector, affected by high interest rates, hinges on the need for a reduction in those rates; however, housing advocates in the City Council have raised $2B in capital funds for the Dept of Housing and NYCHA. The transportation and infrastructure sectors notably advanced this year with projects like Hudson River Tunnel Refurbishments and The Port Authority Bus Terminal replacements, among others. Cultural institutions and other public domains promise fresh activities extending into Q3 & Q4 2024.

Summer in NY Brings Continued Evolution of Construction Market

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with John Tamborino, Vice President of Preconstruction in New York.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Orlando, FL

As we move into the second half of 2024, several large projects will be wrapping up before the end of the year including the new park for Universal Studios. Not to be outdone, Disney annouced plans to invest several billion into Disney World over the coming years. This will greatly affect the local construction markets—as these projects ramp up, competition for the already stretched labor market will grow.

Central Florida Outlook is Strong

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Philadelphia, PA

There are upcoming, notable opportunities across numerous universities and colleges (Penn State, Temple and Drexel Universities, among others), particularly projects related to life sciences and laboratory spaces. Other projects include residential halls and new building structures. Infrastructure upgrades and capital improvements are helping to move the market along while preconstruction activities continue in the healthcare sector, with some larger institutions gearing up for notable projects. Corporate commercial projects are incorporating healthier spaces with fresh amenities to spark interest across a remote workforce.

Higher Ed Infrastructure and Capital Projects Continue at High Pace

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with James Lane, Vice President of Preconstruction in Philadelphia.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Phoenix, AZ

The need for semiconductor manufacturing facilities and data centers continues to grow, driving construction in the metropolitan Phoenix market. The CHIPS Act has reinforced the financial capital in the valley and there is robust market growth and investments. However, skilled labor shortages in the electrical and mechanical trades remain a challenge.

Phoenix, AZ Now a Major Player in Semiconductor Manufacturing and Data Center Markets

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Feeney, Vice President of Preconstruction in Phoenix.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Portland, OR

The volume of new opportunities for high tech, transportation and education has dramatically increased since earlier in the year. Competition is higher than over the past few years, but fees and bids are staying steady. Advisors are directing CHIPS and other Federal money to the State, and project inquiries are up. The energy in Portland is growing with new City policies that will revitalize downtown starting to take effect and more projects on the near horizon.

The Sun's Out and so are New Opportunities

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Steve Clem, Senior Vice President of Preconstruction in Portland.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

San Antonio, TX

According to the latest report issued by the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2023 San Antonio gained more people (22,000) than any other city in the country. This continued population growth will fuel infrastructure and other construction needs and opportunities in the region. Aware of these opportunities, architecture firms and national design firms (Gensler, Page, Perkins & Will) have opened new offices or expanded existing ones over the past few years. Manufacturing is gaining momentum with the recent announcements of significant capital programs from JCB and Toyota. TBRI, UTHealth, SWRI, and Velocity TX are making life sciences capital investments at various levels, yielding current and future opportunities in the construction market. Cybersecurity growth continues with discussion around the potential $1B+ relocation of the 16th Air Force (also known as Air Forces Cyber) to Port SA. Additionally, Forbes recently named the University of Texas at San Antonio the 5th ranked Cybersecurity program in the U.S.; this will contribute to a strong local talent pool in this growing sector.

Multiple Market Sectors Driving Stable Future for Construction

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Chris Hillyer, Senior Vice President of Preconstruction in San Antonio.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

San Francisco, CA

The San Francisco International Airport continues to advance its strategic five-year plan as individual airline projects pick up speed. With the expectation of lower interest rates in Q4 2024 and into 2025, healthcare continues to grow in the Bay Area, with multiple design-build projects released this summer. Science + Technology companies are downsizing their operations, for example, X (formerly Twitter) announced it will be leaving its downtown HQ building. Additionally, power demands are outpacing supply so new mission critical projects, other than those already planned for, are declining and moving east to Reno or other western areas. Regarding construction trades, labor rates will undergo their usual July increase. Most construction materials remain steady with the exception of electrical materials, which spiked as the copper index rose, and we expect to see significant inflation as the demand for AI increases.

Aviation and Healthcare Remain Stable in Bay Area, While Science + Tech Shifts East Around Sacramento

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Seattle, WA

The Seattle market continues to be slow in certain sectors while others are maintaining their growth. With residential projects concluding and minimal new projects going to contract or starting, this sector continues to shrink. Similarly, the commercial market still suffers with a surplus of vacant buildings driven by tech companies reducing their leased spaces and pulling their employees back to core campuses. For K-12, communities are still positive about funding and many districts will have levys and bonds up for vote in the November ballot. This vote will release many projects already in early planning stages. Higher education remains slow with larger projects lacking a firm schedule to start design. With the growing demand for AI, mission critical projects are under construction or in various stages of design and procurement, predominantly on the east side of the mountains. Aviation continues to be steady with Boeing planning for expansions and maintenance upgrades on their three campuses. Healthcare is progressing with several projects starting and many being planned.

Seattle Construction Market Holds Steady

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Dan Curtiss, Vice President of Preconstruction in Seattle.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Tampa, FL

Construction in the Tampa Bay area continues with strong job growth, ranking among the top nationwide. Multifamily, healthcare, education and federal projects have not shown any signs of slowing down. This continues to put pressure on the shortage of skilled trade workers and escalates labor costs for professions such as electrical trades. Although overall supply lines and price escalations have somewhat stabilized with lead times for RTUs, AHUs, and chillers normalizing, electrical equipment delivery times, specifically switchgear, remain extended with no let up in sight.

One of the Hottest Markets in the U.S. Facing Labor and Electrical Component Shortages

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Jeff Courtney, Preconstruction Manager in Tampa.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Stephen Hattwick, Preconstruction Director in San Francisco.

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Design Sentiment

Don’t miss the new design sentiment section to see what our leaders had to say about the industry’s top concerns.

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Stickrod, Vice President of Preconstruction in Orlando.

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market Sentiment

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Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Walt Chislak, Preconstruction Manager in South Florida.

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

See a summary of our market sector performance and local escalation forecast below.

Market Sector Overview

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Local Escalation Forecast

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Market is experiencing and/or is expected to experience significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is busy and construction price inflation is/is expected to be above normal (between 3 and 5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing / inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing / inflation is flat or negative

Market Sector is very busy with numerous large active projects either in Preconstruction or Construction

Market Sector is stable with some large active projects either in Preconstruction or Construction

Market Sector is slow with few large active projects either in Preconstruction or Construction

Skanska is not tracking this sector closely enough in our regional market to comment

Key

Market sector summary

Local escalation summary

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

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Supply Chain Trends and Insights

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About Skanska's Strategic Supply Chain (SSC) Team: Skanska’s SSC team leverages established relationships with major equipment and building material manufacturers to bring best value solutions to our projects and clients. Our direct relationships give us insight into the major supply chains feeding into the construction market.

Unevenness—this perfectly describes the current state of construction supply chains. For several quarters we’ve reported the unevenness of supply chain recovery since the pandemic. Most supply chains have recovered with lead times back to pre-pandemic levels and escalation rates back to 2 – 4 percent. The exception to this is mechanical and electrical equipment, which still suffers from historically high lead times and higher than average escalation. The root cause behind this is the significant increase of data center and semi-conductor/hi-tech manufacturing build outs. The growth of these sectors is also impacting supply chains in unexpected ways. A perfect example of this is a dynamic that we included in our Spring report: soaring demand for sandwich walls, which is straining availability of mineral wool insulation with lead times remaining in the 5 – 8-month range. Another dynamic we’re seeing is uneven demand for labor. Because these data centers and hi-tech manufacturing facilities tend to be very large and concentrated in specific parts of the country, those regions are experiencing increasingly tighter labor markets—just one project can tie-up a large portion of trades for an extended period. This unevenness poses significant challenges for project teams creating a procurement strategy that aligns with the current capabilities and capacity of local markets. Our approach and recommendation is to plan procurement strategies early. Additionally, the size and scope of bid packages must be carefully considered and, in many cases, sized specifically to the capacity of trade partners in the marketplace. This is especially true for regions where large mega-projects and data center campuses are being built out. As you review our map of the U.S., you can see what our preconstruction leaders across the country are saying about each market and its level of activity.

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Contact Tom

Vice President of Strategic Supply Chain

Tom Park

Contact Robert

Director of Strategic Supply Chain

Robert Cantando

Electrical Gear

Roofing Products

Structural Steel

Doors and Hardware

Lab Casework and Fume Hoods

Appliances

Elevators, escalators, moving walks

Plumbing and Fixtures

HVAC Equipment

Electrical commodity Materials

Generators

Current Lead Time and Price Forecast

Lead times described are after fully approved submittals and factory accepted release

Click a category to view details

Status Key

Stable/Consistent

Trending Down

Fluctuating

Trending Up

Trending Up Significantly

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The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) tracks key metrics—such as transportation, warehousing and inventory data —and is collected monthly from industry professionals. A value of less than 50 indicates a contracting market and above 50 indicates a growing market. The LMI for December was 54.6. This is up slightly from November’s reading, which indicates that growth is increasing.

Logistics

Roofing material supply chains remain stable. Lead times for most items are in the 3 – 4-week range depending on quantities needed. Pricing is stable for most components. Polyiso pricing is up slightly, less than three percent.

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Roofing Products

Click for further analysis

Structural steel pricing is softening with hollow structural sections and plate both down in the $40 – 100/ton range in early July. It’s anticipated that wide flange pricing declines will follow. This expectation is based on falling scrap prices and softening demand. Lead times are stable.

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Structural Steel

Click for further analysis

Availability and pricing of drywall continue to be stable. Manufacturers announced significant increases at the start of the year; however, the market experienced a much more modest increase of 5-7 percent. In response to coil steel price increases, metal stud producers announced 10 percent increases in December, January and February. However, coil steel pricing has dropped and some increases have reversed. As of April 19, coil steel pricing is 30 percent below its peak in December.

Ceilings, drywall, metal studs, flooring, paint, etc.

Architectural Interiors

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Lumber pricing remains at the bottom of the market. Housing starts declined by 5.5 percent in May to an annualized rate of 1.28M, the lowest since July 2020. This should continue to hold lumber pricing down for the balance of 2024.

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Wood-based Building Materials

Click for further analysis

Lab casework demand is strong and steady. Lead times continue to hold in the 8 – 12-week range. Pricing is stable as strong demand is being balanced by falling rolled steel prices.

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Lab Casework and Fume Hoods

Appliance manufacturers have corrected lingering supply chain challenges. Lead times and pricing will remain stable as housing starts haven’t seen the seasonal uptick typical for Spring and early Summer.

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Appliances

The overall market for elevators continues to slow as commercial office and residential projects struggle meeting proformas. This is resulting in lower lead times compared to last quarter. While there may be some cost increases on material and labor, general price increases are expected to be minimal in 2024. Elevator lead times vary depending on the category and manufacturer: • Low-rise elevators range from 10-14 weeks • Mid-rise elevators range from 18-20 weeks • High-rise elevators range from 40-44 weeks • Escalators range from 18-24 weeks

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Elevators, Escalators, Moving Walks

Lead times for fixtures, pipe, valves and fittings are generally stable. Additionally, manufacturer price increase announcements were about 1/3 the amount announced in Q1 and averaged less than 5 percent, indicating prices are stabilizing.

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Plumbing and Fixtures

Lead times have improved or stabilized across most manufacturers and categories of equipment. Fewer late deliveries have occurred in comparison to the previous quarter, indicating most manufacturers are overcoming or mitigating supply chain challenges. The most significant improvement in lead times is air cooled chillers ranging 25 – 35 weeks. Water-cooled chillers are stable between 12 – 25 weeks as are custom and semi-custom air handler lead times at 10 – 30 weeks. As predicted, we are seeing a 2024 price increase of 3 – 5 percent.

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HVAC Equipment

Click for further analysis

While a global shortage of semiconductors is affecting several industries, the impact on building controls has been minimal due to mitigation efforts by controller manufacturers. Prices and lead time for materials are expected to increase moderately, however installation labor will continue to dominate price and lead time in this category.

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Building Control Systems

Lead times from all major manufacturers remain high, but large investments in manufacturing capacity is expected to marginally bring them down. High demand for gear (supporting data centers, electrification, EVs, etc.) is consuming much of this new capacity. There is strong demand for liquid-filled, pad-mounted transformers, which will drive lead times up over the next 6 – 12 months (currently lead times are 59 – 130 weeks). Read full switchgear lead times

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Electrical Gear

Lead times for most commodity electrical items are stable. Strong demand and inflation as well as raw copper prices are expected to push prices up. We expect prices for this material to increase 3 – 6 percent over the next 6 – 12 months.

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Electrical Commodity Materials

Manufacturers are still experiencing high demand for all genset sizes, which vary by manufacturer and specification. Manufacturer lead times are based on standard factory enclosures—with custom enclosures there is added lead time and uncertainty. For generators smaller than 1MW, lead times remain in the 45 – 75 week range. Data center demand for gensets above 1-2MWs has set lead times at 2 to 3 years from release. Price increases are on track to rise 10 – 15 percent this year.

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Generators

Based on slowing consumer demand and resolution of congestion at U.S. ports, shipping container activity will fully recover to “normal” levels in 2023 and container costs are now at pre-pandemic levels.

Lead Time

Price

Transportation

Click for further analysis

Door hardware and hollow metal door lead times remain stable. Hardware lead times are holding in the 2 – 10 week range, depending on the item. Hollow metal doors are also holding steady in the 7 – 12 week range. Pricing is expected to remain stable for the balance of 2024.

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Doors and Hardware

Due to strong demand in life sciences, healthcare and the semiconductor markets, pricing and lead times continue to increase. While it varies depending on the material/equipment, the trend is still moving up across the board. Lead times for A269 SMLS Tube is running 24-26 weeks from the mills.

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High Purity Process Pipe, Valves and Fittings (PVF)

Click for further analysis

The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) tracks key metrics, such as transportation, warehousing and inventory data collected monthly from industry professionals. A value less than 50 indicates a contracting market and above 50 a growing market.

Kez Gneiting

National Supply Chain Manager

Contact Kez

Connect with us

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Wood-based Building Materials

LT: Lead Time | $: Price

Key

Continue early release procurement of mechanical and electrical equipment packages Obtain confirmed factory releases in writing from manufacturers Follow up regularly with manufacturers to confirm deliveries

Top planning considerations:

Top planning considerations

Continue early release procurement of mechanical and electrical equipment packages

Obtain confirmed factory releases in writing from manufacturers

Follow up regularly with manufacturers to confirm deliveries

Market Sentiment

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Key Takeaways

The most challenging construction supply chain category continues to be electrical gear

Major electrical gear manufacturers are investing in new plants and equipment

Electrical gear price increases averaging 8-15 percent annually

Metal Studs and Drywall

Availability and pricing of drywall remain fairly stable. Manufacturers are expected to attempt a 5 percent increase at the beginning of August, however there is some skepticism on how effective this will be given the slow housing market. Rolled steel prices continue to fall and, while HRC prices peaked in early January at $1,132/ton, they have now fallen to $660/ton. Some stud manufacturers attempted a price increase at the start of July, but this has been rejected by the market.

Ceilings, drywall, metal studs, flooring, paint, etc.

Metal Studs and Drywall

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insulation

Price increases were introduced in July and stuck. Fiberglass is up 5 percent and mineral wool is up 8 percent. Fiberglass insulation lead times are steady in the 6 – 12-week range. However, mineral wool insulation supply continues to struggle with lead times in the 5 – 8-month range. We expect these extended lead times to remain through 2024.

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Insulation

Looking more granularly into specific supply chains, we find the current status is much the same as our last report: 1. HVAC and electrical gear lead times remain elevated but continue to improve. 2. HVAC equipment escalation is expected to slow to the traditional three-five percent range. 3. The unprecedented pressure continues on certain electrical gear, standby generators/enclosures and air-cooled chiller manufacturers.

Switchgear and other distribution equipment lead times are lessening, but this varies depending on its complexity and the manufacturer. We recommend including electrical gear in early-release bid packages to meet construction schedules. • Complex switchboards: 35 – 64 weeks • Low-voltage switchgear: 40 – 64 weeks • Medium-voltage switchgear: 45 – 92 weeks Price increases in 2024 will be 8 – 15 percent.

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This Construction Market Trends report is developed by Skanska USA Building’s Project Planning, Strategic Supply Chain and Strategy teams. We publish the report quarterly, each February, June, August and November, with an accompanying Market Trends webinar. Historical quarterly reports can be found below. Sign up to be notified of the webinar and report release here.

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Previous Reports

Q4 2020 Report

Q1 2021 Report

Q2 2021 Report

Q3 2021 Report

Q4 2021 Report

Spring 2022 Report

Summer 2022 Report

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Previous Reports

Click below for a previously published Skanska USA Building Construction Market Trends Report.

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Fall 2022 Report

Executive VP of Project Planning

Preconstruction Coordinator

Vice President of Strategic Supply Chain

Director of Strategic Supply Chain

Senior Director, Business Planning and Strategy

Steve Stouthamer

Tom Park

Rob Cantando

Sarah Vakili

David Formichella

Kez Gneiting

National Supply Chain Manager

Please contact us if you have questions, comments or want to discuss any of the content in this report.

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Construction Market Trends Webinar Series

August 23, 2023 2:00 p.m. ET

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Each quarter Skanska’s in-house experts recap current construction market trends and discuss future outlooks.

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Sam Holden Vice President, Project Executive

Sarah Vakili Senior Director of Business Planning and Strategy

Leading the Future of Science + Technology Construction Join Skanska, a recognized leader in Science + Technology construction, for an exclusive webinar focusing on the latest trends driving explosive growth in the S+T market and providing invaluable insights into risk mitigation strategies. Our panel of experts will discuss the rapid evolution of semiconductors, labs and research facilities, data centers and other high-tech projects.

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Tom Feeney Vice President, Preconstruction

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Next Webinar: August 28, 1:00 p.m. ET

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Tom Park Vice President, National Strategic Supply Chain

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Previous Construction Market Trend Webinars

2024 U.S. Construction Outlook and Key Themes Skanska’s in-house experts and distinguished guest, Jay Bowman of FMI, sat down for an insightful hour on the current state of the U.S. construction industry. This webinar dove into supply chain trends, cost escalation, and geographic and market sector dynamics that will shape 2024.

Electrification—The New Imperative As the U.S. rapidly advances on the path to full building electrification and stricter energy regulations, it's more crucial than ever for owners, developers and designers to understand the implications for existing buildings and new assets. Watch our last webinar for an enlightening discussion with four experts on building electrification and electric vehicle infrastructure:

Watch our Fall 2023 Market Trends Webinar

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Skanska

Sarah Vakili Director of Business Planning and Strategy

Schneider Electric

John Lindsey Sr Dir. NAM eMobility Commercial Global Innovation

Skanska

Rob Cantando Director of Strategic Supply Chain

PAE Engineers

Karina Hershberg, PE, LEED AP, Senior Associate

PAE Engineers

Allan Montpellier, PE, LEED AP, Principal, Chief Innovation Officer

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Paving the Way for Low Carbon Construction The construction industry accounts for approximately 40 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. We have an opportunity to make a difference—by choosing low carbon emission building materials, we can greatly reduce our impact on climate change. Watch our webinar that explored three such materials—steel, low-carbon concrete and mass timber—and how they can impact climate change and help you achieve your sustainability goals.