2024 Fall Construction Market Trends Skanska 2024 Fall Construction Market Trends Report

Construction Market Trends

Stay up to date on the dynamics of the construction industry with Skanska USA Building’s Construction Market Trends Report. Explore regional construction escalation insights and forecasts, supply chain lead times, material pricing and critical market indices through this interactive report.

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Fall 2024

With the conclusion of the November election, we can begin to gain clarity on how federal, state and local government changes will impact the construction marketplace. Always top of mind are potential changes to regulatory and trade environments, tax policies affecting economic growth, shifts in climate and infrastructure initiatives and the broader economic challenges and opportunities when the executive and legislative branches of government have party alignment. Beyond the election, the fall season has brought other significant market events. The suspension of the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) strike on October 3 was a welcome relief to a situation that would certainly have had a major economic impact. Concerns remain while the parties continue negotiations against a January 15 deadline. Hurricane Helene left widespread devastation in western NC, eastern TN and upstate SC. Just two weeks later, Hurricane Milton slammed into the Florida Gulf Coast. The storms are estimated to have caused tens of billions of dollars in damage, and both regions will require significant construction resources in the weeks, months and years ahead. A key measure of the health of our industry has always been the AIA Billings Index. While a healthy index typically trends at 50 or above, the past two years have seen the index trend below 50. The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), by way of contrast, is trending upward, even at a time when it typically dips relative to the AIA index. Investor concerns over interest and vacancy rates have impacted many market sectors, but the data center, semiconductor and infrastructure sectors are booming, likely contributing to the divergence of the DMI relative to the AIA Billings Index.

What to expect if:

Consider alternative manufacturers

For prospective projects, evaluate your local market conditions to understand potential shifts that could yield improved budgets.

Understand the constraints of the local utility company

The Construction Market’s Response to the Election Outcomes

Continue to evaluate the major power equipment

With the volatility of the MEP trades, consider alternative procurement approaches such as design-build or design-assist, where possible, with qualified MEP contractors. In traditional procurement models, interview local and regional MEP trade subcontractors early to presell your project and develop a purchasing plan that reflects the input of these key trades.

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Steve Stouthamer

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Consider alternative manufacturers or temporary solutions for power needs to abate lead time issues.

Consider alternative procurement approaches

Evaluate your local market conditions

There remains a significant need to grow the construction workforce. Some would argue that construction employment at 5.2 percent is essentially full employment while many industry experts argue that wage levels need to continue growing to attract the workforce. As craft labor agreements renew, we could see wages increase at a pace higher than normal.

Reductions in interest levels would likely increase spending and put sellers of goods and services in the driver's seat. Construction escalation could begin to climb, but not likely to the double-digit levels we saw post-pandemic. However, project costs would be impacted.

What to watch:

Federal Reserve meeting in December and subsequent adjustments to interest rates. Continued reductions will improve investor confidence in construction development but could begin to tip the economy back towards inflation.

Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates at their September meeting. While many are predicting a rate reduction in September, the Fed may elect to sit tight despite recession concerns as inflation levels remain high.

ILA negotiations to avoid a major supply disruption with a deadline of January 15, 2025.

There remains a significant need to grow the construction workforce. Some would argue that construction unemployment at 3.9 percent is essentially full employment and that wage levels need to continue growing to attract the workforce. As craft labor agreements renew, we could see wages increase at a pace higher than normal.

Impacts from policy changes as a result of the newly elected governments at the federal, state and local levels.

Fall 2024 Construction Pricing Snapshot

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Materials and Commodities

Industry Indices

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Construction Cost Indices

Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of November 2024

Materials Index

Construction Cost Indices

Spending

Building Cost Index

Materials Index

U.S. Employment

Architecture

Unemployment

Click an index or material to view details

Building Cost Index

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics All data as of October 2024

Hover over the chart to see exact figures

The unemployment rate sits at 4.1 percent as of October 2024, down from a high of 4.3 in July 2024. Total nonfarm payroll employment experienced a slowdown in growth in October with only 12,000 additional jobs added. This is attributed to the decrease in manufacturing employment due to labor strikes and offsetting growth in healthcare jobs. Construction only had a minor increase of 8,000 jobs from September to October, keeping the unemployment rate steady.

U.S. Unemployment

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Dodge Data & Analytics Construction spending data for September 2024 and Dodge Momentum data is from September 2024

While the Dodge Momentum Index decreased 4.2 percent from August to September, the index remains at “very robust levels,” up 21 percent from September 2023. In September 2024 alone, 28 projects valued at $100 million or more entered the planning stage. Per Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, “A surge in data center activity drove much of the recent rapid growth in the DMI...By mid-2025, the Fed’s rate cuts should spur planning projects to reach groundbreaking more quickly.”

Construction Spending and Dodge Momentum Index

Source: Engineering News-Record All data as of November 2024

Hover over the chart to see exact figures

Skilled Labor Index and Common Labor Index

ENR's craft labor indices have had year-over-year increases under 1.8 percent. The 10-year average annual increases for these indices are in the 2–2.5 percent range. However, because they do not factor in mechanical and electrical (M/E) crafts, these indices can be misleading and may underestimate labor cost escalation. A similar 10-year trend for M/E labor has shown a 4.2 percent increase per year. Given the mix of trades on construction projects, we estimate that the annual craft labor increase for the past 12 months is in the 2.5–3 percent range.

Skilled Labor and Common Labor Indices

Source: AIA, All data as of September 2024

This Architecture Billings Index (ABI) demonstrates whether or not architectural firms are billing for or signing new design contracts. The construction industry feels the impact of this index with a 9-to-12-month lag time.

The Architecture Billings Index remains below 50, as the majority of firms continue to report a decline in billings. Conditions remain soft in all regions of the U.S., with firms in the South reporting the strongest ABI at 49.5. However, the pace of decline seems to have subsided, and conditions may turn positive soon given the lowering of interest rates by the Fed in September.

September ABI Report

Architecture Billings Index

Fuels and Natural Gas

Structural Steel Inputs

Concrete and Cement

Drywall, Gypsum and Insulation

Asphalt

Lumber and Wood

Piping

Metals

Fuels and Natural Gas

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration All data as of October 2024

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics data as of October 2024 and Producer Price Index data as of September 2024 Drywall and Insulation data as of October 2024, Gypsum data as of October 2024

Drywall, Gypsum and Insulation

Source: Steel Benchmarker All data as of October 2024

Structural Steel Inputs

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index PG 58 data as of October 2024

Asphalt

The drop in prices over the past 60 days is driven in part by sluggish demand for gas as the busy summer traveling season has given way to an autumn slowdown. Meanwhile, a sharp decline in the price of crude oil has propelled a larger drop-off in gas prices than is typically seen at this time of year.

Asphalt index levels are stable despite peak summer demand. We expect to see modest increases in asphalt pricing as road/highway infrastructure project demands increase.

Structural steel pricing fluctuates from week to week, but the overall trend since the start of 2024 has been downward. Plate steel, the most significant component in building structural steel, has been a key reason for lower fabricated steel pricing.

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index Concrete Block and Precast Concrete data as of September 2024 4000 PSI data as of September 2024

Concrete and Cement

Concrete pricing continues to rise but at a slower pace than 2023. Quarter to quarter, 4000 PSI concrete pricing is up just 0.6 percent.

PVC: PVC pipe prices are down due to low residential demand and a solid supply of resin. Copper: Raw copper prices have been volatile. However, pipe costs have remained relatively flat since last quarter. Ductile Iron Pipe: Prices have been relatively stable over the last six months due to flat demand.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index All data as of September 2024

Piping

Lumber pricing continues to be soft due to weak demand. Housing starts remain low at 1.35 million for the month of September, down from 1.36 million in August.

Source: Engineering News-Record and U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index Plywood and 2x4 S4S data as of October 2024 Lumber and Plywoo4d data as of October 2024

Lumber and Wood

Overall, metals pricing is up from mid-year. However, the rally caused by China’s stimulus program at the end of September proved to be short-lived, and pricing has since settled down.

Source: Kitco All data as of October 2024

Metals

Scoring

-50: decrease in volume =50: neutral 50+: increase in volume

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The ENR Materials Index continues to cool from the significant year-over-year inflation experienced in 2021 and 2022. Like the BCI and CCI, the Materials Index doesn’t include mechanical and electrical equipment cost impacts, which have driven project costs higher than traditional measures of construction inflation. With the large volume of high-tech work and expanding electrification efforts in service of decarbonization, such equipment costs will remain high.

For the past 12 months, both of ENR’s core construction indices have remained below the 3–3.5 percent historical, annualized escalation trend. However, it’s important to remember that regional locations are experiencing inflation differently based on work volume. MEP system costs, which are not incorporated in the ENR indices, continue to escalate more rapidly than other building systems.

Scoring

-50: decrease in volume =50: neutral 50+: increase in volume

Drywall availability and pricing are stable. Insulation prices are stable in the short term but an increase in new home sales could apply upward pressure. Lead times for mineral wool insulation remain elevated but have receded slightly from 30 weeks down to 20 weeks.

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Source: Engineering News-Record Data as of November 2024

Labor

Use this slider to modify the timeframe of the data shown on the graph. Click on the graph for specific pricing data points.

Might Change

Forecasting Local 2024 Construction Costs

This map reflects local USA Building Project Planning Services team leaders’ opinions of market volume and capacity and is not based on published analytics or third-party forecasts.

Click the map pins to see forecast details for a specific city or region.

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

Seattle

Portland

Orlando

Tampa

New Jersey

New York

Boston

Phoenix

Philadelphia

Washington D.C.

North Carolina/ Virginia

Cincinnati

Atlanta

Nashville

Houston

Dallas

San Antonio

Los Angeles

San Francisco

Boston/New England

The Greater Boston economy is continuing to grow moderately, driven largely by the diversity of the local economy. Low unemployment and housing shortages are putting upward pressure on the construction market, while flexible workspaces and reduced commercial property values create downward pressure. Healthcare, K-12, higher education, infrastructure and transportation remain strong, with many large projects underway or in design. Local governments are impacting the local construction market, with recent building codes restricting developments that are reliant on fossil fuels and requiring a greater focus on energy efficiency. To avoid a significant increase in residential taxes, City of Boston officials and local business leaders have negotiated a temporary increase in property taxes. However, this deal is not necessarily a positive indicator for increasing property values. Election and economic uncertainties are continuing to slow new commercial development. Pressure on commercial property developments across office, lab and residential projects is slowing new construction in those markets. The slow growth in the Boston market is benefitting new, smaller projects, as increased competition from subcontractors results in lower costs. Even so, project pricing is more significantly affected by the individual project's location, market sector and size than by the broader local market trends.

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Matt Impastato, Vice President of Preconstruction, Boston.

It's All About the Project

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

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Market is experiencing significant construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is less than 3% per annum

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is less than 3% per annum

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

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Atlanta, GA

With the market shift from corporate commercial, higher education and healthcare to mission critical, technology and distribution/manufacturing/warehousing, labor markets remain stressed, particularly for skilled labor. Strategic scheduling of project initiation is critical for securing subcontractor involvement.

Growing High-tech and Mission Critical Sectors Continue to Strain Labor Market

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Dane Wooley, Preconstruction Director in Atlanta.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Cincinnati, OH

As expected, the local trade contractors have continued to add backlog and it is beginning to affect bid participation, particularly in the MEP trades. This lack of competition will continue to inflate bid prices. We still have many large projects ($100 million or more) that will be bidding in the region in the next 6–8 months. These include the Brent Spence Companion Bridge, the Cincinnati Convention Center Hotel, West End Mixed Use, UC-STEM, NKU Science Building, P&G Mason Campus Expansion, CVG Renovations and UK Med School/NKU Chase Law School, along with numerous multifamily residential projects. We expect these projects to put major pressure on the local trade contractor market.

Trade Market Backlog Reaches New High

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Jeff Smoker, Vice President of Preconstruction in Cincinnati.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Dallas, TX

According to USA Today, as of 2024, six of the top ten cities with the largest population growth are in the North Texas area. With the influx of population comes an influx of projects. Three such projects include: 1. The Mix, a 112-acre, $3 billion development that includes a 9-acre park, 350,000-SF of retail space, a 650-key hotel and 2.1 million-SF of office space; 2. River Central, a $2 billion development on more than 140 acres, a 140-key hotel, 120,000-SF of office space, a 56,000-SF concert venue, 60,000-SF of retail space and 1,200 apartments; 3. The Innovation District, a $2 billion development over 13.3 million-SF that includes a 1,000-key hotel, 3,800 parking spaces, 600 residential units, 300,000-SF of office space and 55,000-SF of retail space.

North Texas Continues to Grow

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Linh Le, Vice President of Preconstruction in Texas.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Washington, D.C.

The D.C. Metro region is still facing a mixed market. The commercial office sector is extremely slow, and multifamily has been impacted by high interest rates and cost escalation. However, the recent interest rate reduction and slowing cost escalation provide optimism that some projects can feasibly restart planning in 2025. With data center construction booming and several large healthcare and federal government projects underway, local resources are strained, specifically in the MEP trades. Early engagement with these and other trades with long lead items is increasingly important to secure early procurement and price protection. Most K-12 markets have slowed due to local budget constaints, and increasing competition due to lack of work in other sectors is tightening profit margins. Higher ed opportunities remain strong.

Interest Rate Reduction Sparks Optimism for 2025

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Strawbridge, Preconstruction Director in Washington, D.C.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Houston, TX

As the Houston construction market stabilizes, one thing is apparent: project diversity across all market sectors is increasing. In the mixed-use sector, two notable projects include the Ritz Carlton Residences at The Woodlands, a 15-story condo project with 111 luxury units built on 8 acres in the nationally acclaimed Woodland development, and the Montrose Multifamily Development, a 657,000-SF project with 342 units. Healthcare remains strong, bolstered by projects such as the LBJ Replacement hospitals, budgeted at $2 billion; MD Anderson 1 PC and Clinical Service Building, with a combined budget of more than $3.2 billion; and Methodist Centennial Tower, with a budget of $1.4 billion. In the K-12 and higher ed market sectors, HISD currently has a $4.4 billion bond, Texas A&M has begun a $200 million Space Institute at NASA and Houston Christian University is planning a new engineering, science and nursing building. A notable $2 billion project is also underway in the government sector: the George R. Brown Convention Center Transformation Project.

Diversifcation in Construction Sectors

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Linh Le, Vice President of Preconstruction in Texas.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Miami/Ft. Lauderdale

Local minimum wage requirements that differ from State or Federal—such as Miami Dade County's (MDC) Responsible Wages & Benefits for Construction Contracts—may no longer be permitted under a new Florida law that was recently passed (HB 433). For many trades, these stipulated wages are higher than the market rate, driving up the cost of the work. Removing these requirements should lower labor costs and increase the number of bidders interested in publicly funded projects.

New Legislation May Impact Public Projects

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Nashville, TN

Nashville’s economy remains steady, driving a cautious but stable approach to construction projects across public and private sectors. Public institutions, including the State of Tennessee, public higher education institutions and local municipalities, continue to release funds for new construction projects. However, new project releases are expected to slow until municipal funding is approved for the next fiscal budget cycle. Meanwhile, private higher education and healthcare institutions remain healthy. Owners continue to allocate capital for construction projects and are poised to secure new investments heading into 2025. The recent drop in interest rates is a positive development for the private sector, but further reductions will be necessary to advance projects currently on hold. The redevelopment of the East Bank is gaining momentum, with potential to drive future construction in this area, as well as in River North. Additionally, the anticipated sale and redevelopment of SA Recycling (formerly PSC Metals) is expected to further stimulate growth.

Nashville's Steady Economy Sustains Stable Construction

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Adam Hicks, Vice President of Preconstruction in Nashville.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

North Carolina/Virginia

Commercial office and multifamily developer work has slowed dramatically, with many projects waiting for further interest rate cuts and the end of election uncertainty. This has led to relatively stable pricing in the majority of civil, structural and architectural trades. Meanwhile, the dramatic increase in large data center, advanced manufacturing and pharma projects has continued. These projects have a disproportional impact on MEP trades and, as a result, MEP contractors are experiencing a significant lack of capacity. This results in more selective bidding and increased pricing, particularly on larger projects where the availability of capable firms is already limited. Some adjacent regions are starting to experience slowdowns, so large MEP contractors from those geographies have started to explore establishing operations in this market. In time, this may help ease the current price pressure, although demand shows no signs of slowing in the foreseeable future. The local impacts of hurricanes Helene and Milton are still TBD, as recovery efforts may bring increased demand for certain trades, but also isolated material shortages. All projects, no matter their requirements, should focus on engaging MEP partners early to secure long-lead equipment and ensure adequate labor capacity and market competition.

Strained MEP Capacity Driving Pricing

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Will Senner, Vice President of Preconstruction in North Carolina and Virginia.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

New Jersey

Despite September’s 0.5-percent cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, economists estimate that more cuts are needed to boost new construction starts. With another 0.5-percent cut predicted by the end of the year, New Jersey construction markets, such as education, healthcare and public works, could see more growth as soon as Q1 2025. Labor prices continue to rise due to a shortage of skilled workers. Annual construction wages are trending upward over 4 percent. Lumber prices are expected to decline over 6 percent for the year, but an anticipated recovery in residential construction may cause them to rebound nearly 5 percent in 2025.

Several New Jersey Construction Markets to Benefit from Interest Rate Cuts

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Nick Culver, Vice President of Preconstruction in New Jersey.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

New York, NY

The healthcare market remains stable, with NYU Langone Health looking to bring a new hospital campus to Long Island to service their ever-growing community. The life sciences sector is similarly steady, with two notable projects now on the horizon: SPARC on Manhattan's East Side and the exciting Governors Island Climate Exchange project, which is soon to begin preconstruction. Private sector housing is still sluggish, slowed by heightened interest rates and difficulty securing tenants. The commercial office sector is also experiencing a slowdown marked by low tenant occupancy rates. The transportation and infrastructure sectors grew notably this year through projects like the Hudson River Tunnel Refurbishments and the Port Authority Bus Terminal replacements. Cultural institutions and other public domains continue to promise fresh activities extending into Q3 and Q4 2024.

Fall in NY Brings New Life Sciences and Healthcare Initiatives

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with John Tamborino, Vice President of Preconstruction in New York.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Orlando, FL

The ongoing population explosion in Florida has maintained a strong demand for new construction across the state. Orlando is seeing an especially high population growth as the second-fastest growing of the country's 30 most populated regions. This growth requires new construction of essential services like utilities, roadways and education and healthcare facilities. The largest population increase is by those aged 60–69, who do not contribute to the additional workforce needed to undertake these projects. This disconnect between population growth and project demand results in strong competition for labor and, therefore, increased wages, up 10 percent year-over-year in some trades.

Central Florida Outlook is Strong

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Philadelphia, PA

Preconstruction continues to dominate project activity across multiple market sectors, including higher education, healthcare and life sciences. We anticipate several large projects will hit the market in 2025 as cost escalation begins to slow. Clients have started releasing multiple projects that had previously been held back due to internal and market constraints. The healthcare market sector is heating up as competition increases between healthcare institutions for first place in both Behavioral Health Facilities and Women's Services Buildings. We're also seeing multiple clients explore capital improvement projects on aging MEP infrastructure.

Planning Continues for Major Projects in the Region

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with James Lane, Vice President of Preconstruction in Philadelphia.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Phoenix, AZ

Phoenix remains a Technology Hub where massive investment continues in the data center and semiconductor market. While the infusion of CHIPS Act funding is slower than expected, there has been some positive movement over the last few months and we expect to see significant growth in semiconductor spend in Arizona in 2025 and beyond. Meanwhile, the Data Center growth in the region is not going to slow down any time soon. Only Silicon Valley and Northern Virginia are ahead of Phoenix in data center growth, with many citing Phoenix’s stable power sources and low propensity for natural disasters as core reason for the the region’s attractiveness.

The Phoenix Market Stays Hot This Fall

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Feeney, Vice President of Preconstruction in Phoenix.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Portland, OR

The Oregon market is largely driven by a few industry giants like Nike and Intel, each a major employer in the region. Both have been enduring lean times but are positioning themselves for a marketplace comeback. This is important to the construction market, not only because of confidence they can inspire in the local economy, but also because of their need for construction services during periods of growth, especially along their supply chains. A decision is pending on an expansion for the urban growth boundary that would support an application for a federal Tech Hub designation. This designation would drive more project opportunities in mission critical and semiconductor manufacturing. Several previously awarded K-12 projects are skipping the November ballot in favor of a May vote on bond funding. Aviation, healthcare, higher ed and industrial projects remain steady, while new office, residential and hospitality starts remain weak. The live entertainment sector got a boost this fall with the approval of a mid-size LiveNation venue, as well as a decision on a new facility and renovations for a Broadway-ready theater. Several professional sports projects are also potentially in the pipeline after the announcement of a Portland WNBA team and renewed activity in the MLB-to-Portland campaign.

An Uneven Rebound

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Steve Clem, Senior Vice President of Preconstruction in Portland.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Back to map

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

San Antonio, TX

In September, the city council voted to approve the development of a new downtown baseball stadium for the San Antonio Missions. This approval is contingent on simultaneous adjacent developments required to generate tax revenue for stadium funding, and the project is anticipated to be a catalyst for major economic development for many years. The Capital Construction Assistance Program (CCAP), which is one of the critical mechanisms that provides funding for public projects, did not receive funding in the 88th legislative session in 2023. The 89th session is scheduled to begin in January and will impact large institutions such as TXST, UT Systems, TAMU and subsequent construction projects across the state. Peak demand requirements for mission critical projects, specifically in electrical trades, are being supplemented by out-of-market subcontractors to support the tremendous ongoing sector growth and peak labor demands. Except for mission critical, the local workforce is steady, and prices remain stable. Critical MEP equipment lead times are slowly improving, but still require dedicated strategies as part of procurement planning.

Mission Critical Growth Peaks Labor Requirements

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Chris Hillyer, Senior Vice President of Preconstruction in San Antonio.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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San Francisco, CA

The San Francisco International Airport continues to advance its strategic five-year plan as individual airline projects pick up speed. Healthcare continues to grow in the Bay Area, with over $1 billion in projects in the pipeline over the next few years. Science + Technology companies continue to have small renovations and IT projects, but no major projects have been identified yet for 2025. Additionally, power demands are outpacing supply, so there are no new mission critical projects on the horizon, other than those already planned. Instead, owners are opting to build in Reno, where the data center market is growing rapidly and pulling resources away from the Bay Area, affecting the local labor supply. There is a $1.5 billion community colleges bond on the ballot for 2024 that should result in multiple new projects over the next few years. Most construction materials remain steady with the exception of electrical materials, which continue to have spikes based on commodity indexes and the continued demand for additional AI data center facilties.

New Mission Critical Geographies Drive Resource Competition

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Seattle, WA

Similar to last quarter, Seattle’s market remains active in some sectors but stagnant in others. The residential market continues to slow, with only a few projects starting construction this year. Similarly, the commercial market has a bleak outlook as companies use space more efficiently or continue remote work options, leaving vacancy rates between 30–50 percent. The K-12 market remains strong, with several projects currently underway and nearing completion. As passed bonds are already bidding and moving into preconstruction, districts are actively pursing levies and bonds to get their projects underway. Several large K-12 projects seek funding in the November ballot and are eagerly awaiting a decision. Higher education is slow and steady, as Washington’s energy goals and grants have pushed design forward on many publicly-funded campuses. Mission critical continues to drive a flurry of new projects with little to no end in sight.

Seattle Construction Market Slow but Steady

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Dan Curtiss, Vice President of Preconstruction in Seattle.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Tampa, FL

Construction in the Tampa Bay area continues with strong job growth, ranking among the top nationwide. Multifamily, healthcare, education and federal projects still show no signs of weakening. This continues to put pressure on the shortage of skilled trade workers and escalates labor costs. We have seen prices and supply lines stabilize somewhat, with lead times for MEP equipment no longer overly extended.

One of the Hottest Markets in the U.S. Continues to Face Skilled Labor Shortage

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Jeff Courtney, Preconstruction Manager in Tampa.

Local Construction Cost Forecast

Next 6 months

6 months - 1 year

1 - 2 years

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing/inflation is flat or negative

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is experiencing significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

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Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Stephen Hattwick, Preconstruction Director in San Francisco.

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Design Sentiment

Don’t miss the new design sentiment section to see what our leaders had to say about the industry’s top concerns.

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Tom Stickrod, Vice President of Preconstruction in Orlando.

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market Sentiment

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Want to discuss the local market position and forecast? Connect with Walt Chislak, Preconstruction Manager in South Florida.

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

See a summary of our market sector performance and local escalation forecast below.

Market Sector Overview

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Local Escalation Forecast

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Market is experiencing and/or is expected to experience significant/ abnormal construction price inflation (+5% per annum)

Market is busy and construction price inflation is/is expected to be above normal (between 3 and 5% per annum)

Market is stable and construction pricing / inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Market is recessed and construction pricing / inflation is flat or negative

Market Sector is very busy with numerous large active projects either in Preconstruction or Construction

Market Sector is stable with some large active projects either in Preconstruction or Construction

Market Sector is slow with few large active projects either in Preconstruction or Construction

Skanska is not tracking this sector closely enough in our regional market to comment

Key

Market sector summary

Local escalation summary

Market is stable and construction pricing/ inflation is within traditional indices (less than 3% per annum)

Construction price inflation is expected to be above normal (3-5% per annum)

Catch Tom Feeney speak on our Summer Webinar: Leading the Future of Science + Technology Construction

Supply Chain Trends and Insights

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Back: Local Forecasts Map

About Skanska's Strategic Supply Chain (SSC) Team: Skanska’s SSC team leverages established relationships with major equipment and building material manufacturers to bring best value solutions to our projects and clients. Our direct relationships give us insight into the major supply chains feeding into the construction market.

It’s been a busy quarter for supply chain happenings. Thankfully, the longshoreman’s strike was short-lived and didn’t create a significant impact on the supply of construction materials. Of course, further negotiation is still required to reach a final settlement before the January 15 deadline, so we will continue to monitor the situation closely. The other supply chain dynamic we are keeping an eye on is China’s impact on the global metals market. China’s economy has been in decline for more than three years, led by a significant decrease in real estate values. Until recently, Chinese leaders have been hesitant to provide a stimulus to jump-start the economy. This all changed at the end of September, when Chinese leaders announced a large stimulus package consisting of interest rate cuts, recapitalization of large banks, bail outs for struggling local governments and homeowner assistance. As a result of this stimulus, and in anticipation of rising demand for metals, the market for base metals spiked. For example, the price of copper jumped 6.5 percent, steel prices increased 6.9 percent, and nickel prices increased 9.2 percent, all demonstrating the influence of China’s economy on the metals market. The good news is that doubts about the potential positive impact of the Chinese stimulus, and about the increase in metals consumption, caused the market to pull back from these price jumps throughout October. The question now is, will China introduce further stimulus? Clearly, a rebounding Chinese economy will drive the market upward for base metals, so we will keep a close eye on this. Finally, we will also be watching potential tariffs that could be enacted by the Trump administration as it takes office in January. Tariffs could have a significant impact on price and product availability. We will report further on tariffs in our Winter 2025 Trends report.

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Contact Tom

Vice President of Strategic Supply Chain

Tom Park

Contact Robert

Director of Strategic Supply Chain

Robert Cantando

Electrical Gear

Roofing Products

Structural Steel

Doors and Hardware

Lab Casework and Fume Hoods

Appliances

Elevators, escalators, moving walks

Plumbing and Fixtures

HVAC Equipment

Electrical commodity Materials

Generators

Current Lead Time and Price Forecast

Lead times described are after fully approved submittals and factory accepted release

Click a category to view details

Status Key

Stable/Consistent

Trending Down

Fluctuating

Trending Up

Trending Up Significantly

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The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) tracks key metrics—such as transportation, warehousing and inventory data —and is collected monthly from industry professionals. A value of less than 50 indicates a contracting market and above 50 indicates a growing market. The LMI for December was 54.6. This is up slightly from November’s reading, which indicates that growth is increasing.

Logistics

Roofing material supply chains remain stable. Some regions may experience minor increases to membrane lead times but can still plan for an average of 3–4 weeks. Pricing is stable for most components.

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Roofing Products

Click for further analysis

Structural steel pricing continues to soften. Since the start of the year, plate and tube are both down between 35–40 percent. Wide flange has been holding steady after a 9 percent drop in March of this year. Lead times are stable.

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Structural Steel

Click for further analysis

Availability and pricing of drywall continue to be stable. Manufacturers announced significant increases at the start of the year; however, the market experienced a much more modest increase of 5-7 percent. In response to coil steel price increases, metal stud producers announced 10 percent increases in December, January and February. However, coil steel pricing has dropped and some increases have reversed. As of April 19, coil steel pricing is 30 percent below its peak in December.

Ceilings, drywall, metal studs, flooring, paint, etc.

Architectural Interiors

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Lumber pricing remains at the bottom of the market. Housing starts declined by 0.5 percent in September from a downwardly revised level of 1.36 million in August. Pricing is expected to remain depressed in the short term.

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Wood-based Building Materials

Click for further analysis

Lab casework demand is steady as life sciences projects continue to be strong. Lead times are holding within an 8–12-week range.

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Lab Casework and Fume Hoods

Appliance manufacturers have corrected lingering supply chain challenges. Lead times and pricing will remain stable as housing starts haven’t seen the seasonal uptick typical for Spring and early Summer.

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Appliances

The overall market for elevators continues to slow as commercial office and residential projects struggle meeting proformas. This is resulting in lower lead times compared to last quarter. While there may be some cost increases on material and labor, general price increases are expected to be minimal in 2024. Elevator lead times vary depending on the category and manufacturer: • Low-rise elevators range from 12-14 weeks • Mid-rise elevators range from 18-20 weeks • High-rise elevators range from 40-44 weeks • Escalators range from 18-24 weeks

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Elevators, Escalators, Moving Walks

Lead times for fixtures, pipe, valves and fittings are stable. Fixture and equipment prices have increased since January by about 5 percent on average for the year. Prices are expected to rise 3–5 percent over the next 12 months.

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Plumbing and Fixtures

Lead times for air-cooled chillers remain very high and are increasing significantly in some cases. Some manufacturers have received large orders within the last three months, causing lead times to increase over a very short period and impacting some project schedules. Lead times for air-cooled chillers range from 25–50 weeks depending on size and manufacturer. Water-cooled chiller lead times have also increased and are now in the range of 29–49 weeks. Semi-custom air handler lead times remain at 10–30 weeks. Price increases for 2024 will be in the range of 3–5 percent.

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HVAC Equipment

Click for further analysis

While a global shortage of semiconductors is affecting several industries, the impact on building controls has been minimal due to mitigation efforts by controller manufacturers. Prices and lead time for materials are expected to increase moderately, however installation labor will continue to dominate price and lead time in this category.

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Building Control Systems

Lead times from all major manufacturers remain high. Strong demand for gear (supporting data centers, electrification, EVs, etc.) is consuming much of the new capacity. There is strong demand for liquid-filled, pad-mounted transformers, which will continue to drive lead times up over the next 6–12 months (currently lead times are 59–130 weeks). Within the last three months, strong demand from mega projects is driving up lead times for busway. Read full switchgear lead times

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Electrical Gear

Lead times for commodity electrical items are stable. Strong demand and metal price inflation are expected to push prices up in the range of 3–6 percent over the next 6–12 months.

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Electrical Commodity Materials

While demand for >2MW generators is still very high, some manufacturers do have capacity for delivery in 2025. Manufacturer lead times are based on standard factory enclosures; custom enclosures create longer lead times and greater uncertainty. For generators smaller than 1MW, lead times remain in the 45–75-week range. Data center demand for gensets above 1-2MWs has set lead times at 2–3 years from release, with some exceptions. Price increases are on track to rise 10–15 percent this year.

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Generators

Based on slowing consumer demand and resolution of congestion at U.S. ports, shipping container activity will fully recover to “normal” levels in 2023 and container costs are now at pre-pandemic levels.

Lead Time

Price

Transportation

Click for further analysis

Door hardware and hollow metal door lead times remain stable. Hardware lead times are holding within a range of 2–10 weeks, depending on the item. Hollow metal door lead times are also holding steady between 7–12 weeks. Pricing is expected to remain stable for the rest of 2024.

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Doors and Hardware

Due to strong demand in life sciences, healthcare and the semiconductor markets, pricing and lead times continue to increase. While it varies depending on the material/equipment, the trend is still moving up across the board. Lead times for A269 SMLS Tube is running 24-26 weeks from the mills.

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High Purity Process Pipe, Valves and Fittings (PVF)

Click for further analysis

The Logistics Managers Index (LMI) tracks key metrics, such as transportation, warehousing and inventory data collected monthly from industry professionals. A value less than 50 indicates a contracting market and above 50 a growing market.

Kez Gneiting

National Supply Chain Manager

Contact Kez

Connect with us

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Wood-based Building Materials

LT: Lead Time | $: Price

Key

Continue early release procurement of mechanical and electrical equipment packages Obtain confirmed factory releases in writing from manufacturers Follow up regularly with manufacturers to confirm deliveries

Top planning considerations:

Top planning considerations

Continue early release procurement of mechanical and electrical equipment packages

Obtain confirmed factory releases in writing from manufacturers

Follow up regularly with manufacturers to confirm deliveries

Market Sentiment

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Supply Chain

Webinar Series

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Key Takeaways

The most challenging construction supply chain category continues to be electrical gear

Major electrical gear manufacturers are investing in new plants and equipment

Electrical gear price increases averaging 8-15 percent annually

Metal Studs and Drywall

Availability and pricing of drywall remain fairly stable. Manufacturers continue to convert their plants back to gypsum and away from synthetic sources. However, this is not expected to affect pricing, given the low rate of new home construction. Rolled steel prices have held steady since falling early in 2024. Pricing currently stands at $715/ton. Pricing for metal studs is expected to remain stable in the short term.

Ceilings, drywall, metal studs, flooring, paint, etc.

Metal Studs and Drywall

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insulation

Prices are currently trending up for insulation. Mineral wool lead times are finally starting to see some relief as manufacturers catch up with demand. Lead times have decreased from eight months to five months, and we expect them to continue to drop.

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Insulation

Looking more granularly into specific supply chains, we find the current status is much the same as our last report: 1. HVAC and electrical gear lead times remain elevated but continue to improve. 2. HVAC equipment escalation is expected to slow to the traditional three-five percent range. 3. The unprecedented pressure continues on certain electrical gear, standby generators/enclosures and air-cooled chiller manufacturers.

Switchgear and other distribution equipment lead times are extended, but this varies depending on equipment complexity and manufacturer. We recommend including electrical gear in early-release bid packages to meet construction schedules. • Complex switchboards: 35 – 64 weeks • Low-voltage switchgear: 40 – 64 weeks • Medium-voltage switchgear: 45 – 92 weeks Price increases in 2024 will be 8 – 15 percent.

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This Construction Market Trends report is developed by Skanska USA Building’s Project Planning, Strategic Supply Chain and Strategy teams. We publish the report quarterly, each February, June, August and November, with an accompanying Market Trends webinar. Historical quarterly reports can be found below. Sign up to be notified of the webinar and report release here.

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Previous Reports

Q4 2020 Report

Q1 2021 Report

Q2 2021 Report

Q3 2021 Report

Q4 2021 Report

Spring 2022 Report

Summer 2022 Report

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Previous Reports

Click below for a previously published Skanska USA Building Construction Market Trends Report.

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Fall 2022 Report

Executive VP of Project Planning

Preconstruction Coordinator

Vice President of Strategic Supply Chain

Director of Strategic Supply Chain

Senior Director, Business Planning and Strategy

Steve Stouthamer

Tom Park

Rob Cantando

Sarah Vakili

David Formichella

Kez Gneiting

National Supply Chain Manager

Please contact us if you have questions, comments or want to discuss any of the content in this report.

Winter 2023 Report

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Spring 2023 Report

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Fall 2023 Report

Winter 2024 Report

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Construction Market Trends Webinar Series

August 23, 2023 2:00 p.m. ET

Next Webinar:

Each quarter Skanska’s in-house experts recap current construction market trends and discuss future outlooks.

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Sam Holden Vice President, Project Executive

Sarah Vakili Senior Director of Business Planning and Strategy

Leading the Future of Science + Technology Construction Join Skanska, a recognized leader in Science + Technology construction, for an exclusive webinar focusing on the latest trends driving explosive growth in the S+T market and providing invaluable insights into risk mitigation strategies. Our panel of experts will discuss the rapid evolution of semiconductors, labs and research facilities, data centers and other high-tech projects.

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Tieg Murray Senior Director, Market Strategy

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Tom Feeney Vice President, Preconstruction

Watch our latest Market Trends Webinar

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Next Webinar: August 28, 1:00 p.m. ET

Skanska panelist

Tom Park Vice President, National Strategic Supply Chain

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Previous Construction Market Trend Webinars

2024 U.S. Construction Outlook and Key Themes Skanska’s in-house experts and distinguished guest, Jay Bowman of FMI, sat down for an insightful hour on the current state of the U.S. construction industry. This webinar dove into supply chain trends, cost escalation, and geographic and market sector dynamics that will shape 2024.

Electrification—The New Imperative As the U.S. rapidly advances on the path to full building electrification and stricter energy regulations, it's more crucial than ever for owners, developers and designers to understand the implications for existing buildings and new assets. Watch our last webinar for an enlightening discussion with four experts on building electrification and electric vehicle infrastructure:

Watch our Fall 2023 Market Trends Webinar

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Skanska

Sarah Vakili Director of Business Planning and Strategy

Schneider Electric

John Lindsey Sr Dir. NAM eMobility Commercial Global Innovation

Skanska

Rob Cantando Director of Strategic Supply Chain

PAE Engineers

Karina Hershberg, PE, LEED AP, Senior Associate

PAE Engineers

Allan Montpellier, PE, LEED AP, Principal, Chief Innovation Officer

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Paving the Way for Low Carbon Construction The construction industry accounts for approximately 40 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. We have an opportunity to make a difference—by choosing low carbon emission building materials, we can greatly reduce our impact on climate change. Watch our webinar that explored three such materials—steel, low-carbon concrete and mass timber—and how they can impact climate change and help you achieve your sustainability goals.

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